Intambara 'ku bisagara no ku mato y'igitoro' hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine izoherera he?

Igisirikare ca Ukraine kimaze imisi mu ruhigi ku mato y'Uburusiya atwara igitoro n'ayunguruza ibintu biremereye mu kiyaga ca Azov no mu Kiyaga Cirabura, ariko kandi kikaba kiriko congereza akariro mu bitero vyaco ku bibanza biri kure cane imbere mu Burusiya.

Inyuma y'ibitero vyagabwe ku nganda zitunganya igitoro no ku bigega kibikwamwo, ubu catanguye ibitero bikomeye ku bibanza vy'ugutunganya no gukwiragiza ibidandazwa.

Ku ruhande rwaco, igisirikare c'Uburusiya na co congereje akariro mu bitero vyaco ku turere dutandukanye twa Ukraine, kirasa amato ya gisivire hafi ya Odessa, kikarekurira ibisasu vya misire na za ndege zitajamwo abadereva (drones) ku bisagara bikuru bikuru.

Ibi bitero hagati y'impande zompi biriko bituma ibitigiri vy'abasivire bahasiga ubuzima vyongerekana, aho bamwe babona ko iyi ntambara iriko yibutsa iyabaye hagati ya Iran na Irak hagati ya 1980 na 1988, cane cane ikiringo kizwi nk'"intambara ku bisagara no ku mato y'igitoro".

Imyaka ine inyuma y'aho Saddam Hussein agomoreye ingabo kuri Irani, urugamba rwarananiranye, impande zompi zivamwo zitangura guterana vya muzinga vy'urutavanako, zongera zicucagira ibibombe ku bikorwa remezo, buri ruhande rwizeye ko rwari guhava runaniza urundi maze uru rukamanika amaboko.

Muri iyo ntambara, abasivire nibura 20.000 barishwe mu bitero vyakorwa ku migwa mikuru, ku bisagara bikuru, ibivuko, amato ya gisivire (harimwo n'ay'abanyamahanga), ibibanza bibikwamwo canke bicururizwamwo igitoro hamwe no ku bigo vy'inganda. Naho impande zompi zatakaje ibitari bike, nta ruhande na rumwe hagati ya Irak na Iran rwashoboye gutsinda burundu urundi.

None ubwo birabereye kugereranya iyi ntambara y'ubu hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine n'iyo yabaye, haraheze imyaka irenga 40 ? Iyi "ntambara ku bisagara no ku mato y'igitoro" ishobora kurangira gute canke kugenda mu bihe vya none? Hari uruhande rwoshobora kuyitsinda?

Ibizwi ku vyo buri ruhande rumaze kuhahombera?

Nk'uko bivugwa n'Ubutumwa bwa ONU bukurikirana ibijanye n'agateka ka zina muntu, abasivire nibura 293 barishwe, abandi 1.990 barakomereka mu bitero vy'Uburusiya muri Ukraine mu kwezi kwa Ruheshi (6) kwonyene.

Abenshi mu bahitanywe n'ivyo bitero bari mu turere tugenzurwa n'ingabo za Ukraine, cane cane mu ntara za Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson hamwe n'umugwa mukuru Kyiv.

Dufatiye kuri ivyo biharuro vya ONU, mu mezi atandatu ya mbere ya 2026, abantu 1.396 barishwe, abandi 7.978 barakomereka muri Ukraine, ni ukuvuga ku rugero rwa 37% ugereranije n'ico gihe nyene co muri 2025, aho abantu 1.122 bishwe na 5.734 bagakomereka, hamwe kandi no kuri 114% ugereranije n'ico gihe nyene c'umwaka wa 2024, , aho abantu 940 bishwe na 3442 bagakomereka.

ONU ivuga ko impamvu nyamukuru ari ukwiyongera kw'ibitero vy'ibisasu vya misire n'amadrone ku bisagara, hamwe n'ikoreshwa ririko ririyongera ry'ududrone duto ku rubuga rw'intambara.

Nta bitigiri nyavyo vyerekana abasivire b'Uburusiya bamaze kugwa canke gukomerekera mu bitero vya Ukraine mu kiringo nk'ico nyene, kuko Uburusiya butigera bushira ahabona ibitigiri rusangi vy'abahitanwa canke abakomerekera mu ntambara.

Rosemary DiCarlo, arongoye Ishami rya ONU rishinzwe Ibibazo vya Politike, yavuze ku wa 9 Mukakaro (7) mu Nama nkuru ya ONU ijejwe Umutekano kw'isi ko, nk'uko vyatangajwe n'abategetsi b'Uburusiya, abasivire 250 bishwe abandi 1.596 barakomereka mu Burusiya mu gice ca mbere c'umwaka, ariko ko ONU itashoboye kwemeza ivyo biharuro.

Biranagoye kurusha kumenya neza ibimaze kuhatakarira ku mpande zompi. Akenshi, Uburusiya na Ukraine ntibikunze gutangaza amakuru y'ivyabaye ku bigo n'inganda za gisirikare, canke ku bindi bigo nyamukuru biterwa, canke naho iyo biramutse biyatangaje bigatanga amakuru make atuma bitoroha kumenya urugero rw'ivyononekaye.

Ariko rero, ntibishoboka guhisha ibiturika n'imiriro, mu gihe vyinshi muri vyo bibera mu turere dutuwemwo n'abanyagihugu benshi canke hafi yatwo.

Ibitero ku bisagara

Dufatiye ku makuru atangwa n'amasoko atandukanye, kuva muri Nzero (1) gushika muri Mukakaro (7), ingabo za Ukraine zateye inganda zose 11 zikomeye zitunganya igitoro z'Uburusiya ku ruhande rwa Buraya, hamwe n'izindi zibiri ziri mu bisagara vya Tyumen na Omsk biri hirya cane, mu karere kagutse cane ka Siberia.

Ibibanza bitari bike bishingurwamwo igitoro, inganda, ibivuko, ibigo bishikiramwo igitoro n'izindi nyubakwa ngirakamaro na vyo vyaratewe.

Ivyononekaye ku bigo bikurubikuru bitunganya igitoro vyatumye zimwe muri izo nganda zugarwa burundu canke zigabanya umwimbu. Ivyo vyatumye haba igabanuka ry'umwimbu w'igitoro ukoreshwa mu gihugu n'uwushorwa hanze, mbere uduce tumwe tumwe turanakena igitoro.

Ariko nubwo habaye ihungabana rikomeye, ibikorwa vyo gutunganya igitoro mu Burusiya ntivyahagaze. Bubandanya bushobora igitoro hanze, ibibanza vyononekaye bimwe bimwe biriko birasanurwa, kandi ubutegetsi buriko buragerageza gukwiragiza ivya nkenerwa hamwe n'igitoro mu turere dutandukanye. Ariko, kumenya ingene bizoba vyifashe mu gisata c'igitoro c'Uburusiya biragoye, kuko ibitero bikibandanya.

Muri Mukakaro (7), amadrone ya Ukraine yatanguye kurekurirwa ku bindi bibanza bishasha: ibigega n'ibibanza bikomakomeye vy'ugukwiragiza ibidandazwa. Mw'ijoro ryo ku wa 18 Mukakaro, ububiko bwa Wildberries muri Elektrostal mu ntara ya Moscou n'ubwa Kotovsk mu ntara ya Tambov, bwaratewe. Ububiko bwo muri Moscou bwarahiye hafi bwose.

Ku musi wakurikiye, ku rubuga rumwe rw'igisirikare ca Ukraine hasohowe urutonde rw'ibibanza 25 bikomeye vy'ubwikorezi n'ugukwiragiza ibidandazwa mu Burusiya ku ruhande rwa Buraya, bivugwa ko bizoraswa, kandi ibitero vyarabandanije.

Ku wa 20 Mukakaro, igitero ca drone cateje umuriro mu gace k'inganda ka Yuzhnye Vrata mu ntara ya Domodedovo. Haravuzwe kandi ko habaye ukugerageza gutera ububiko bwa Wildberries hafi ya Podolsk, mu ntara ya Moscou.

Mw'ijoro ryo ku wa 22 Mukakaro, amadrone ya Ukraine yarateye ibigo vya Wildberries vyo mu ntara za Krasnodar na Nevinnomyssk. Iyi kompanyi yavuze ko ibikorwa vyahagaze vy'agateganyo muri ivyo bigo vyose bibiri.

Ku ruhande rwabwo, Uburusiya buriko burongereza akariro mu ibitero vyabwo ku bikorwa remezo muri Ukraine. Amadrone n'ibisasu vya misire biriko vyibanda cane ku duce dutuwemwo n'abantu turi hafi y'urubuga rw'intambara, hamwe no hirya ya ho mu bisagara biri kure y'urwasiro.

Amastasiyo acururizwamwo ibitoro, ibituro vya gari ya moshi hamwe n'amagari ya moshi ubwayo, imodoka, amahinguriro yo mu gisata c'uburimyi, amazu y'ubudandaji hamwe n'inyubakwa z'ubuyobozi, biraturirwa, mbere n'ibitero ku bigo vy'amavuriro n'inyubakwa z'uburaro ntibihara.

Mu myaka itari mike, Uburusiya ntibwahengeshanije kugaba ibitero ku bigo vy'ishirahamwe rya Ukraine ryitaho gutwara no gukwiragiza ibintu ryitwa Nova Poshta. Mw'ijoro ryo ku wa 19 Mukakaro, misile ya balistique y'Uburusiya yarasambuye ikigo nyamukuru hafi cose ca Amtel kijejwe gukwiragiza ibidandazwa kiri hafi ya Kyiv, ikigo gifise uburinganire bwa metero kwadarato 100.000 kandi carungika imizigo mu gihugu cose.

Abategetsi b'Uburusiya hamwe n'ibinyamakuru vya reta bakunze gusigura ibitero bagaba kuri ibi bigo no ku bibanza vy'ugukwiragiza ibintu bavuga ko bidakoreshwa gusa mu bikorwa vya gisivire, ahubwo ko bikoreshwa no mu bikorwa vya gisirikare.

Ni kuri iyo mvo nyene muri Ruheshi (6) 2026, Ubushikiranganji bw'Uburusiya bujejwe kwivuna abansi bwatangaje ko ibigo vya Nova Poshta biri i Novy Korotich hafi ya Kharkiv no mu ntara ya Sumy vyatewe, vyari bisanzwe bibikwamwo ibirwanisho, cane cane amadrone n'ibice biyagize.

Urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rwo mu Burusiya rwandika amakuru ya gisirikare ruzwi kw'izina rya Fighterbomber, rwaraneguye izi nsiguro, ruvuga ko mu bihe nk'ivyo, vyari bikwiye gukorwa ata gusigura vyinshi canke ata gutangaza impamvu mu mugaragaro.

Canditse kiti: "Turiko twiyimbira icobo twebwe nyene. Kuko na Wildberries nyene irakira, ikabika kandi igakwiragiza ibintu bishobora gukoreshwa mu bikorwa vya gisivire canke vya gisirikare. Ariko igihe itewe, twebwe duca tuvuga ko ari igitero c'iterabwoba categuwe".

Intambara ku mato y'igitoro

Imisi mikeyi imbere y'uko ibitero ku bibanza vy'ugukwiragiza ibidandazwa mu Burusiya bitangura, impande zompi zatanguye isekeza rinini ryo gutera amato mu Kiyaga Cirabura no mu Kiyaga ca Azov.

Nk'uko bivugwa n'igisata ca Ukraine gikoresha amadrone, hagati y'itariki 6 na 17 Mukakaro honyene, amadrone yateye amato nibura 159 yunguruza ibintu y'Uburusiya, harimwo 117 yari mu Kiyaga ca Azov, nayo 42 akaba yari mu Kiyaga Cirabura.

Ayo mato yatewe hafi yose yari ayunguruza igitoro, gaz, ibidandazwa vyinshi, amato akwega ayandi hamwe n'ubwato bumwe bwo bujabutsa abantu n'ibintu (ferry).

Nta ruhande rwigenga rwemeza ko ayo mato yose yasambutse burundu, ariko hari amwe yagaragaye ariko arasha cane canke yononekaye.

Kuva ku wa gatanu w'indwi iheze, Uburusiya bwagabanije uruja n'uruza rw'amato mu Kiyaga ca Azov, ahari hasanzwe haca hafi ica kane c'intete Uburusiya bushora hanze.

Muri iyi ndwi nyene, Uburusiya bwabujije amato kwinjira ku kivuko ca Azov kiri mu Kiyaga ca Taganrog no ku kivuko ca Kavkaz kiri mu Muhora wa Kerch.

"Umwansi ubu yahinduye ibitero vyiwe avyerekeza mu Kiyaga Cirabura, kubera igabanuka rikomeye ry'uruja n'uruza rw'amato mu Kiyaga ca Azov," ni ko urubuga rwa Telegram rwo mu Burusiya rwitwa Military Informant rwanditse.

"Dufatiye ku mashusho y'ibigendajuru, igitigiri c'amato kiri muri ako karere caragabanutse ku rugero rwa 78%, kandi imirundo minini y'amato yahora ari hafi y'ibivuko no mu Muhora wa Kerch isa n'iyazimanganye rwose".

Ku rundi ruhande, Ubushikiranganji bw'Uburusiya bujejwe kwivuna abansi bwatangaje ku wa 16 Mukakaro ko ingabo z'Uburusiya zarashe ubwato bumwe bwunguruza ibintu hamwe n'ubwato bumwe bwihuta bw'Ingabo za Ukraine, yompi yatera aja ku bivuko vyo mu gisagara ca Odessa. Ukraine ntiyemeje ayo makuru.

Ku wa 19 Mukakaro, abategetsi ba Ukraine batangaje ko ibikorwa remezo vy'ikivuko ca Odessa vyatewe, bigatuma ubwato bwa gisivire bwari bufise ibendera rya Antigua na Barbuda bwononekara.

Ku munsi wakurikiye, Ukraine yatangaje ko ingabo z'Uburusiya zarashe ibisasu vya misire bitatu ku bwato Golden Leo, bwari bufise ibendera rya Guinea-Bissau bwarimwo ingano hafi y'inkombe za Odessa. Vyatangajwe ko nibura abantu 10 bari mu bakozi b'ubwo bwato bishwe muri ico gitero. Iki gitero caremejwe n'ibinyamakuru mpuzamakungu nka Reuters, DW (Deutsche Welle, ikinyamakuru Uburusiya bwashyize ku rutonde rw'ibigo vyiswe "abakozi b'abanyamahanga"), hamwe n'ibindi binyamakuru mpuzamakungu bitari bike.

Kugereranya ivy'ubu n'ivya kahise

Hari ibintu vyinshi bisa hagati y'intambara ya Iran na Iraq n'iyo hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine – igihe intambara imaze imbere y'uko ibitero nk'ibi bitangura, ubukana bw'ibitero, hamwe n'ibibanza biterwa. Ariko kandi hariho itandukaniro rikomeye.

Muri iyo ntambara ya Iran na Iraq, "intambara yo ku bisagara no ku mato y'igitoro" yatanguriye hafi ica rimwe ku mpande zompi. Saddam Hussein ni we yatanguye igihe yabona ko urugamba rutariko rumugendera neza, ariko Iran na yo ntiyatevye kwishura nk'uko nyene.

Ku bijanye n'iyi ntambara hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine, bivugwa ko yatanguye kuba "intambara yo ku bisagara" igihe ibitero vy'ukwihora vy'Ingabo za Ukraine vyatanguye kwigaragaza cane. Ariko mu vy'ukuri, Uburusiya bwari bumaze igihe kirekire bukora ubu bwoko bw'intambara.

"Kuva mu 2022, Uburusiya bwarasambuye hafi inganda zose za Ukraine zatunganya igitoro hamwe n'ibigo nyamukuru vyabikwamwo igitoro. Ntibwashizwe kuko bwaciye bwizizira inganda zitunganya gaz", ni ko umuhinga wo muri Ukraine akurikiranira hagufi ivya gisirikare, Oleksiy Kopytko, avyibuka. Yongerako ko muri ico gihe Ukraine itari ifise uburyo bukwiye bwo kwivuna canke ibirwanisho bishobora gushika kure.

"Uburusiya bwakoze ibitero bikomeye ku nganda zikora canke zifasha igisirikare. Bwatera amahinguriro y'ibintu bitandukanye harimwo ay'amamashini n'ibikoresho, ay'ivyuma, n'ayandi. Inyuma yo kugerageza gusambura amahinguriro ya Ukraine, Abarusiya baciye bahindukirira ibivuko no n'ububiko bunini bw'ingano. Bateye ibigo vy'ububiko n'ivy'ugukwiragiza ibidandazwa", ni ko uno muhinga w'umunya-Ukraine yandika.

Hari irindi tandukaniro. Ibirwanisho vyakoreshwa na Iran na Iraq mu myaka irenga 40 iheze ntivyarimwo ubuhinga bwa none ntahusha, kandi abantu benshi barishwe mu bitero vy'urudavagi hamwe n'ibisasu vya misire vyata inzira.

Ibisasu vya misire vya none hamwe n'amadrone bikoreshwa n'Uburusiya na Ukraine bifise ubuhinga bwinshi ntahusha kuruta. Naho rimwe na rimwe bishobora guhusha canke bikagwa ku nyubakwa z'abanyagihugu bitari birungitsweko, akenshi bigema aho birungitswe.

Ibi bisigura ko, ku ruhande rumwe, ivyago ku banyagihugu bishobora kugabanuka biciye mu buryo bwo kuburira abantu hakiri kare no kubimura ibintu bitaraba nabi. Ariko ku rundi ruhande, kurinda ibibanza bikomeye nk'ibigo vy'igisirikare, ububiko n'inganda ni ibintu bigoye cane.

Mu ntambara zibandanya igihe kirekire, ibirwanisho vyo gutera usanga birusha ububasha ivy'ukwivuna. Muri rusangi, guhingura ibirwanisho vyo gutera biroroshe kandi bitwara uburyo buke.

Nk'uko amakuru ava mu gisirikare ca Ukraine abivuga, kuva iyi ntambara yeruye itanguye mu 2022, Uburusiya bwikuvye gatatu mu guhingura ibisasu vya misire zo mu bwoko bwa Iskander, mu gihe Ukraine idafise igitigiri gikwiye c'ibisasu vya misire bizimvye cane vyo gutangira izo misire z'Uburusiya.

Ku rundi ruhande, Uburusiya na bwo burafise ikibazo gisa n'ico: ubuhinga bwabwo bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere ntibwizewe ku bushobozi bwo gutangira amajana n'amajana y'amadrone ya Ukraine asa n'ayazimbutse mu bitero vya buri musi mu turere dutandukanye tw'ubutaka bwagutse cane bw'Uburusiya.

Ni mu gihe nyene Uburusiya na bwo buriko burakoresha amadrone ku bwinshi mu bitero vyabwo kuri Ukraine, ariko kandi Ukraine na yo ikaba yatanguye gukoresha ibisasu vya misire bigendera hafi (missiles de croisière/cruise missiles) kandi igashobora vuba gutangura gukoresha imisile zayo za balistique.

Dufatiye ku kuntu ibintu biriko biragenda, biragoye kubona uwuzokwungukira muri iyi ntambara yo ku bisagara, kuko ishobora kubangamira impande zompi. Ariko ikiriho ni uko Abanya-Ukraine bamaze imyaka itanu bari muri ibi bitero, mu gihe Abarusiya ariho bagitangura guhura na vyo.